The Anbar Problem No One is Talking About

by: Brandon Friedman

Thu May 08, 2008 at 05:17:33 AM EDT


For months now, supporters of the war in Iraq have trumpeted America's apparent success in Iraq's Anbar Province as a model for counterinsurgency operations.  With major fighting in Fallujah, Ramadi, and Qaim in the past, what had once been the most violent region of Iraq had--by the fall of 2007--become one of the most peaceful areas of the country.

It stayed that way until recently.  When a yet-to-be-named U.S. soldier was killed while on patrol in Anbar on Tuesday, he became the ninth American to die there in the past three and a half weeks.  This is neither random nor insignificant.

In fact, during the past 30 days, 23 percent of coalition combat fatalities have occurred in al-Anbar Province.  Considering that only two U.S. troops had been killed in Anbar in the preceding six months--representing just over one percent of total coalition combat fatalities during that period--this is a huge uptick.

In comparison, combat fatalities have dropped significantly in Baghdad over the same 30-day period.  The graph below shows the percentages of coalition combat fatalities taking place in Baghdad and al-Anbar over the past seven months (in 30-day increments beginning on October 11, 2007):

To be certain, people don't plant IEDs randomly.  Planting roadside bombs in the first place is incredibly risky, and insurgents don't take the issue lightly.  Thus, when IEDs and VBIEDs (car bombs) suddenly start going off west of Baghdad again, it's for a reason.

While I do not profess to know exactly what change in the political climate precipitated this specific spike in violence, I do know that General Petraeus was correct when he said that the placidity in Anbar Province was reversible.  What most have failed to realize thus far is that, while al Qaeda is deeply unpopular in Anbar, U.S. forces are equally despised.  So it seems that those who've repeatedly used Anbar's relative peacefulness as a sign of impending U.S. success in Iraq know little about counterinsurgency and less about Iraq.

Success in Iraq is something that will be brought about by Iraqis--not the American military.  As long as we're there, the best we can hope for is extreme violence broken by periodic lulls--such as what we've witnessed in Anbar over the past seven months.  As long we remain in Iraq, the violence will remain cyclical.  It will rise and fall, contingent on the latest deal we've cut with tribal leaders or the latest deal that someone has brokered within the Iraqi government.  But our military will never completely solve this inherently Iraqi problem.  We're watching that unfortunate fact unfold before us in Anbar this month.

Here are the numbers:

                          Total Hostile Fire Deaths :: Baghdad  :: Anbar

10/11-11/9                      30                                  10                    0
11/10-12/9                      21                                    7                    0
12/10-1/8                        19                                    4                     0
1/9-2/7                             34                                    8                     0
2/8-3/8                             19                                   11                    1
3/9-4/7                             47                                   37                    1
4/8-5/7                             40                                   19                    9
Brandon Friedman :: The Anbar Problem No One is Talking About
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The Anbar Problem No One is Talking About | 17 comments
Baghdad braces for 'exodus' from Sadr City... (0.00 / 0)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/mid...

water, food, medicine and 'fighting'... UN had earlier reported that 8,000 families had already left Sadr City

This after it was announced that US would send 3500 surge troops home because decreased violence 'demonstrates continued progress'.

And more from the continuing saga: Iran now blaming US for Mosque bombing.
http://www.gulfnews.com/region...

Back to Whack-a-mole, and local 'gang' struggles???? Yup, it continues hot, restless, and deadly in the sandbox.

I have to wonder if the problems in Anbar (0.00 / 0)
are related to the recent release of so many Sunni prisoners?  

"No U.S. soldier ever dies in vain because they're carrying out the missions of their commander in chief. And we honor all the service that they've provided." - Barack Obama
Something tells (0.00 / 0)
me yes. Do you have a link for the prisoner story? I would like to read it when I get a minute.
[ Parent ]
Here are a few (0.00 / 0)
http://www.iht.com/articles/20...

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04...

http://theiraqinsider.blogspot...

"No U.S. soldier ever dies in vain because they're carrying out the missions of their commander in chief. And we honor all the service that they've provided." - Barack Obama

[ Parent ]
Detainee release (0.00 / 0)
I think it's more about insurgents fleeing Mosul and trying to go elsewhere.  There haven't been many detainee recaptures.
[ Parent ]
I think you are absolutely right... (0.00 / 0)
 ...when you say that success in Iraq will be brought about by Iraqis and not the American military. Hopefully everybody knows by now that Iraq is a political problem - an "inherently" Iraqi problem, as you say - in desperate need of a political solution.

I have two questions: (1) when you say, "insurgents", who exactly are you talking about - specifically with respect to the current situation in al-Anbar province?...are we talking al-Qaeda-types, or various Iraqi Sunni and other factions engaged in a vicious civil war, or both...? And, (2) do you believe that the US has NO role to play in helping the Iraqis find a political accommodation that they can all live with? I would just add that, up until now, the Iraqis have most definitely NOT being receiving any help like this and that is what has been sorely missing in all of this, in my not so humble opinion.

Would you agree that without a concerted effort by the US, along with the regional and major powers,  to promote a sustainable political settlement in Iraq there is NO good reason to keep US troops in harms way there for another second!

I know that your questions aren't directed to me (4.00 / 1)
But I'd, like to take a stab at a few  if I may.  As far as the insurgents in Anbar province, I think these are a combination of the Islamic State of Iraq, the Iraqi Islamic Party, and their various splinter groups warring between themselves.  These groups can't agree on anything, except that they hate the coalition forces.

Does the US have a role to play in helping Iraqis find a political solution?  Yes, but it is not a military role.  There is not one political party in all of Iraq that supports continued military presence.  I also believe we should severely limit the financial assistance we give as well.  As long as we pay for everything, and provide for everything, they have no incentive to do so themselves.  

As for your last statement, there is no good reason our military should be there now.

"No U.S. soldier ever dies in vain because they're carrying out the missions of their commander in chief. And we honor all the service that they've provided." - Barack Obama

[ Parent ]
Thanks very much for that! (0.00 / 0)
I agree that the US and the regional/major powers must act to promote a political solution in Iraq but most definitely NOT by way of the military.

What we need here is the mother of all diplomatic surges and more than a little US leadership. I wish I could say I was hopeful that either will materialize before it's too late!

[ Parent ]
Did you catch LtGen Sanchez on Morning Joe today? (0.00 / 0)
Looked but didn't find a transcript or vid. May be up later.

He has a new book out so he will probably doing the 'rounds'.

[ Parent ]
I agree with Chris for the most part. (4.00 / 1)
As for the name of the people killing U.S. troops, I use the term "insurgent" in this case loosely.  I'm not there, so  I have no idea who's responsible for this uptick.  Could be disgruntled Sunni tribal groups in Anbar.  Could be Islamic extremists.  Could be Shia fighters trying to stir up Sunni/American strife.  Who knows.  We'll have to see it play out.
[ Parent ]
It's Al Qaeda in Iran, you imbecile! (4.00 / 1)
=)
[ Parent ]
Ha! (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
I honestly do (4.00 / 1)
not know what the explanation for this upsurge is.

It could be AQI attempting to reassert itself in Anbar.

It could be disgruntled Tribal folks who say the US has worn out its welcome in Anbar.

Maybe more Wahhabi jihadists came in over the borders. If I am wrong here then please correct me, but I doubt that the borders are secure, and the various neighboring countries all have at least some Wahhabi presence.

Maybe it is tied to the recent Sunni releases from detention facilities. AQ has been known to weasel itself out of US custody before. AQ also has been known to run indoctrination operations behind DF walls.

Then again, I honestly do not know what the actual explanation is. I do know one thing for sure. Focusing so much attention on the Mahdi army will inevitably take pressure off of AQI and the ISI, which most certainly is a bad thing. I think we can all agree on that.

Yeah man. (0.00 / 0)
Is there a direct threat by the Mahdi Army to US domestic security?  That'd be a stretch.
[ Parent ]
Highly unlikely (0.00 / 0)
If anything, the Mahdi Army is a sort of insurance policy to ensure that AQI never does take over Iraq. It simply does not make much sense to try and destroy them.  
[ Parent ]
Great (4.00 / 1)
charts and graphs Brandon, thanks for putting those together.  oh . . . and did you forget were "winning"
Of course I didn't forget we're winning. (4.00 / 1)
This is all part of the plan.
[ Parent ]
The Anbar Problem No One is Talking About | 17 comments
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