Rate of Violence Skyrocketing in Afghanistan

by: Brandon Friedman

Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 17:00:28 PM EDT


While U.S. hostile fire fatalities in Iraq last month dropped to their lowest level since December, the news has been far grimmer coming out of Afghanistan.  In terms of enemy fire, May 2008 was the second deadliest month of the war since hostilities began in Afghanistan shortly after 9/11.  This also marked the end of the deadliest 12-month period for U.S. troops in combat in Afghanistan since the war began nearly seven years ago.

14 Americans were killed by hostile fire in Afghanistan last month (equal to the same number killed in June 2006).  The deadliest month of combat in Afghanistan for U.S. troops was in June 2005 when 25 died--16 in a single helicopter shoot-down.

While 14 hostile fire fatalities may not seem significant when compared to the fighting in Iraq, there are two facts that we must take into consideration:

1. We have just experienced the deadliest 12-month period of the war in Afghanistan in terms of hostile fire--by far.  

99 Americans have been killed in action since 1 June 2007.  The previous 12-month high was 70--between 1 June 2005 and 31 May 2006.

2. The hostile fire death rate for American troops in Afghanistan last month was four times that of Iraq.  

One out of every 2,500 (.04 percent) Americans in Afghanistan died last month at the hands of the enemy.  This is much higher than in Iraq, in which one out of every 10,000 (.01 percent) American troops died.

While hostile fire casualty rates in Iraq have been higher than .04 percent in about half of all months since the invasion, this shows us one fact that cannot be overlooked: The violence in Afghanistan only seems minimal to Americans because there are a mere 33,000 troops there.  But the rate of violence there is clearly comparable to that in Iraq--where 155,000 troops are now serving.  For those 33,000 troops in Afghanistan, for the first time now, life has become more dangerous than in Iraq.

The U.S. death toll in Iraq is clearly much lower now than it was last summer.  But while conservative pundits and Bush Republicans are patting themselves on the back for the ebbing violence (relatively speaking, of course), these idiots have managed to give away the game in Afghanistan.  Iraq is--and always has been--a distraction from the Real Global War on Terror, and now those chickens are coming home to roost.  We can see it in the casualty rates.  Osama bin Laden is still free and Ayman al-Zawahiri is too.  Extremism is flourishing in the border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and it's something that represents a much greater threat to the U.S. than does anything in Iraq.  General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker have said so themselves.  After such a deadly year, that should be plain for anyone to see.

This is why John McCain must not be elected.  We're on the wrong track now with our primary focus on Iraq, and McCain aims to keep it that way.  Because of his ignorance in terms of foreign policy and current events, McCain represents a severe threat to our national security--when we can least afford it.

We must now redirect our efforts toward international development and the eradication of extremism in Afghanistan and Pakistan.  And we must let the Iraqis take the lead role in their own country.  We have other, more pressing, problems.  
Brandon Friedman :: Rate of Violence Skyrocketing in Afghanistan
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Rate of Violence Skyrocketing in Afghanistan | 11 comments
Agree with what you say, (0.00 / 0)
but don't see what is the U.S. objective in Afghan.

Clearly, it's not to get OBL.

Killing Taliban is hardly a worthy goal in and of itself.

Democracy isn't exactly struggling to flourish there, from what I've been reading.

Propping up Karzai MAY be a worthy goal in strategic terms, but if it is, the U.S. is woefully under-committed militarily in Afghan.

I guess maybe that's your basic point.

We're under-committed there in every way. (0.00 / 0)
All our resources are going into Iraq--which is a huge mistake.
[ Parent ]
On target, Brandon (4.00 / 1)
  I'd like to throw one of my pet issues out there to expand this diary a bit:

 Also because of our overcomittment in Iraq, our military has shown itself incapable of responding to CONUS crises (Katrina) and the fact that our southern border is increasingly presenting a very real security problem.

 I'm not getting into the finer points of immigration - although it definitely plays a large role - but the narcoterrorism  spreading throughout northern Mexico will, IMHO, spread across the border (in a more overt fashion than the several brief, cross-border incidents in recent months/years).

 So while we dither in Iraq, continue to allow OBL and his ilk to run free, fail to address the Pakistan issue, do little to actually secure our southern flank, and saber-rattle toward Iran, the last thing we need is someone who's as clueless about the realities of foreign affairs as GWB.

 And McCain may be - if it's possible - even more clueless about it. To the point of keeping me awake at night.  

[ Parent ]
What would be the greatest force-multiplier for Afghanistan? (0.00 / 0)
In other words, what one thing could we take from Iraq, give to OEF, and bring casualty rates down?  Many claim that the drop in violence in Iraq is due to the high number of troops.  But when I was there we were in open-air Humvees with no doors or roof, and now they have HEV's.  That alone has to have helped.  If we could move the artillery from OIF to OEF, or the UAV capabilities, so that soldiers in Afghanistan could get eyes on the objective when they needed it.  Also, what is our medevac infrastructure like in Afghanistan?  It seems that we have truly put all of our eggs into one basket here (Iraq) and are letting the GWOT flounder.

"No U.S. soldier ever dies in vain because they're carrying out the missions of their commander in chief. And we honor all the service that they've provided." - Barack Obama
[ Parent ]
Suicide blast: Danish Embassy in Islamabad (0.00 / 0)
[ Parent ]
Somehow I think that if there was a window of opportunity in (0.00 / 0)
Afghanistan, it has closed. My personal belief is that OBL is probably dead, but his 'personal' influence if still alive is limited to his legacy.

The US economy sucks. Internationally, the US has lost its creds and is loosing Military support from the 'coalition' and NATO. The US Military is stretched beyond its current force limits.

Karzai's brother is supposedly the major drug lord in the area. If that is correct, are we just supporting a government that has little influence outside of Kabul and fueling another narco nation?

Also, didn't we just increase the US force level by 3000 Marines. How does this balance the decrease of other nations' troop strengths? How does this change the ratio of US Troops in direct fire situations.

Iran has a 'deal' for a pipeline to Pakistan and beyond. Seems from what I read that it the smart says it will never be accomplished because of the 'forever' situation in Afghanistan and Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan.

If we pull out, will Iran and Pakistan move to restore some order to get the pipeline through? Can this work to the USA benefit without our committing actual forces to the area?

Africom is a mess. A big mess and as irritated Vet pointed out we have a  'narco' problem growing on our southern border. In fact, Bush has committed US aid to Mexico to fight that little 'war'. You can add Piracy to irritated vet's list in my estimation.

I am seriously concerned about the 'state' of our military. Even if we totally pull out of Iraq which will be a slow process, we have a real long term challenge in rebuilding our forces. Wow, and the economy sucks. The fight over bucks is not going to be pretty.

While I don't disagree with you philosophically about Afghanistan, pragmatically it sucks.

Piracy - excellent point (0.00 / 0)
  Yeah, I certainly could have thrown that in earlier...as well as the possibility of problems down the road along the Pacific Rim (China).

 As far as windows closing, the other window that closed (politically speaking) about 2 months before we launched Iraq was the possibility of a draft. Until very early 2003, it would have been palatable to institute some form of conscription to bolster our nation's armed forces in time of war.

 Sadly, no one saw fit to do so (other than the order to go shopping after 9/11), and as deMeme clearly and accurately points out, even if America were to begin withdrawing from Iraq tomorrow, it would take a couple years to complete...and rebuild/rest/retrain forces...and re-equip.

 As deMeme said - it will take many years to get our military back up to snuff (I refer to the late 70s as an example)...but we would likely be doing so whilst still dealing with the Afghanistan and Pakistan issues (and all the other issues touched on in this thread).

 I'm still a proponent of conscription - not the most pleasant subject to discuss, but one that historically speaking is mandatory for any nation fighting a war....let alone two.

 We "reality-based" thinkers sure have a hard time getting along these days. We're painted as some sort of defeatist radical, when in reality, we're looking for ways to ensure American victory - or at least the ability to learn from the gaffes of GWB and rebuild our standing in the world.

[ Parent ]
Good point on McCain (4.00 / 1)
Do you really want this man elected?


Thanks. I'm wretching. (4.00 / 1)

[ Parent ]
That's just plain 'spooky'........... (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Remembering LCpl Robert Crutchfield... (0.00 / 0)
Marine dies after being dissed, shot, and robbed at a Cleveland, OH bus stop.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/CRIME/...

We do, so desperately need change in this country.

I know this is OT, but I just caught this is and I am so angry and sad.

Rate of Violence Skyrocketing in Afghanistan | 11 comments
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