From Fallujah To Diyala, The Target Has Shifted

by: Chris LeJeune

Tue Jul 29, 2008 at 15:36:36 PM EDT



I have previously written here concerning the Diyala province heating up.  More recently, it has gotten even worse.  There has been escalating violence and corruption at various levels of the Iraqi government.  There have been reports that the Diyala Operations Commander, Staff General Abdul-Kareem al-Rubaee, has been dismissed, and the MNF arrested the Diyala Deputy Governor.  Now, the US military is planning a full assault on the Diyala province.  

U.S. military commanders are liaising with top Iraqi brass on a fresh large-scale offensive to subdue the restive Province of Diyala to be launched early in August.
The attack will be the second major military operation in less than six months targeting Diyala. The province of which the city of Baaquba is the capital has hardly recovered from the devastation the troops incurred in the previous offensive.

As I have recently mentioned, many of the Sunni Awakening groups are holding out for more money, and threatening to rejoin the ranks of their previous insurgent groups, including AQI and the 1920's Revolutionary Brigade.  Our own Alex Horton wrote an insightful post about this here.  It seems now that this unrest may be a sign of more to come in Diyala.

The province is predominantly Arab Sunni but sizeable communities of Sunni Kurds and Arab and Kurdish Shiites live there.

So how big of an offensive are we talking about?

Thousands of U.S. troops as well as armored vehicles and helicopter gun ships are reportedly deployed to take part in the operation.
Tens of thousands of residents are said to have fled the province in anticipation of the attack.
The multi-ethnic and sectarian nature of the province is mirrored in the composition of Iraqi troops and security forces.
Units with Shiite majority are feared more than U.S. troops in mainly Sunni areas and there have stories of oppression and massive human rights abuses.
In protest, the U.S.-sponsored Sunni militia in the province known as Sahwa or awakening has been disintegrating with tribal leaders resigning or simply refusing to press ahead with fighting al-Qaeda.

If the Awakening groups fall apart, violence will escalate.  Sunni groups are appealing to the IIP and the Sunni Accordance Front in an effort to promote some stability.

Chris LeJeune :: From Fallujah To Diyala, The Target Has Shifted
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From Fallujah To Diyala, The Target Has Shifted | 18 comments
comment of a newbie (4.00 / 2)
This diary and Brandon's about campaigns that are funded in part and supported by VetVoice are two good examples of why I am glad to have found this site.

There is some discussion recently of the impact of what might be called the non-traditional media. If Sens. Stevens and McCain have not grasped the concept of "a Google" or "an internet" with its series of tubes then that is their problem. I and others have found it to be an immediate resource of information that is unavailable elsewhere. I cannot name a traditional media source online, in print or on the tube that has this story.

Ladies and Gentlemen of VetVoice you are to be commended.
Keep up the good work. I appreciate your efforts and admire your work. Whatever the outcome in November, no matter who is being sworn-in on the steps in January, let your work continue as long as men and women wear uniforms in our military.

That said...
I have a bad gut feeling that if the Sunni's decide we are not their friends anymore that things are not going to go well. The fact that there are Kurds in the equation as well complicates things that much more. This situation in Diyala bears watching. Keep us up on it as much as you are able.

First rule of holes: When you are in one, quit digging.
Molly Ivins

Thank you (4.00 / 1)
I am always wondering why the traditional media never cover a LOT of the news in Iraq.  When they had their elections, the media was so concentrated on the fact that they were having elections, no one bothered to see who they elected.  Iraq has the most Pro-Iranian government outside of - Iran. When the Iranian General in Qom negotiated a cease-fire between the Badr Organization and the Mahdi Army, there wasn't a peep about it in our local MSM.  When Maliki traveled to Iran to assure their government that Iraq would not be used as a staging area for a US attack on Iran, the media here was silent.  It amazes and befuddles me.

Anyway, thank you and welcome to VetVoice.  

"No U.S. soldier ever dies in vain because they're carrying out the missions of their commander in chief. And we honor all the service that they've provided." - Barack Obama

[ Parent ]
More thoughts (4.00 / 1)
This from Gen. Mixon in 07 about the need for a stable government that can take care of the needs of the people. Same ole about the limitations of a possible military solution.

http://www.outlookseries.com/n...

So, who were the 'fleeing refugees' that left Diyala? Internally displaced? The Whack-a-moles? Does this relate to the 'bombings' in Mosul and Baghdad?

More on the central Iraqi government and the upcoming Provincial Elections. How does the need to for the US to commit to a Withdrawal time table fit into any true Iraqi solution [IIP]?

http://www.iraqupdates.com/p_a...

deMeme (4.00 / 1)
Go over to the one I have posted about todays release of the Rand Report, 7years to late, but it should be read, and I'm surprised I've seen virtually zip from any outlets about it.

The links are all there in my post.

'Hearts and Minds, "The ultimate victory will depend on the hearts and minds of the people who actually live there." -- President Lyndon Johnson

[ Parent ]
You (4.00 / 1)
And others, may want to take a look at a writeup by fellow 'Nam Vet Jan Berry, at his blog, on the Rand Report as well.

'Hearts and Minds, "The ultimate victory will depend on the hearts and minds of the people who actually live there." -- President Lyndon Johnson
[ Parent ]
Too bad, I guess... (0.00 / 0)
...that no one seems to have a comprehensive political solution to this growing mess.

Wait a second...someone does...but, alas...no one seems to care.

Federalism has been rejected by the Iraqis...and its their country (0.00 / 0)
Some thought about the Kurds, but given the tensions from Syria, Turkey, and Iran...
[ Parent ]
I've got news for you deMeme! (0.00 / 0)
Most Iraqis understand that federalism, as outlined in their constitution, is the only way out of the mess they find themselves in and offers the best hope they have of avoiding an all out civil war.

Most of Iraq's sectarian leaders are on board with Senator Biden's strategy (he has been meeting with them for many years now) as is Turkey and as are the permanent members of the UN Security Council, not to mention an overwhelming and unprecedented majority of the US Congress (the Biden strategy for reversing US policy in Iraq by PROMOTING a political solution in Iraq based on federalism and Iraq's Constitution passed by an incredible vote margin of 75-23!).

[ Parent ]
Yeah but (0.00 / 0)
shouldn't we at least leave the IIP out, being that they are agents of AQI.
[ Parent ]
Agreed, but (0.00 / 0)
They are an elected part of the Iraqi government. We cannot tell the Iraqi people that they can have free elections, then tell them who they can choose.

"No U.S. soldier ever dies in vain because they're carrying out the missions of their commander in chief. And we honor all the service that they've provided." - Barack Obama
[ Parent ]
Then again (0.00 / 0)
I would dispute the fairness of their being elected, being that AQI ruled the streets of Anbar during that time. Besides, the original point of the GWOT was to defeat AQ and their supporters. Shouldn't that supercede everything else.  
[ Parent ]
Instead of missing the point, (0.00 / 0)
I'll just call it moot...if that's OK with you. :)

Seriously, I guess the point of the GWOT certainly is to defeat AQ/AQI/AQIA and their active supporters. But, so far, we seem to be going in the exact opposite direction, with al'Qaeda et al. only on the move and getting stronger.

The point I keep trying to make is that we're not going to get anywhere in the GWOT until we begin to understand that, in Iraq, there is no military solution. There is only a political solution and it is high time we all start focusing on what will be required to put one into action.

I'm with Chris...and Joe Biden...on this one - we cannot impose political reconciliation on the Iraqis and expect that we will be doing ourselves any favors when it comes to successfully moving forward on the GWOT.

Speaking of the GWOT, I'm starting to wonder if what we really need in Afghanistan is NOT more troops but a concerted effort to move toward another political solution by way of a muscular diplomatic effort or is that place circling the drain and beyond hope? I'm thinking that what is needed in Iraq is infinitely more achievable than the equivalent in Afghanistan, at this point in time.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah but (0.00 / 0)
AQ knows how we love political solutions and will use that one against us as well. Hence political wings such as the Muslim Brotherhood. We really are in no position for a political solution right now. Middle Eastern politics are unlike anything we have ever seen, and we have a ridiculously hypocritical policy in that part of the world. If we seek to bring freedom and democracy to the Middle East, then why are we supporting the most oppressive, freedom hating country in the region?? Why don't we just get out of their political business. Let them sort it out. Our political solution just got AQI supporters into the Iraqi government. Lets stop digging now.  
[ Parent ]
Lets just (0.00 / 0)
abandon our political meddlings in the Middle East altogether for the moment. I think we should figure out what it is that we really stand for first.  
[ Parent ]
You may be absolutely right! (0.00 / 0)
Time may have long run out for a political solution in Iraq and Afghanistan - time has certainly run out for a military solution...of that, there can be no doubt.

And, US policy in the Middle East has been nothing short of catastrophic - for decades!

One more thing is for sure - the US is NOT going to have the capacity to  do anything about AQ et al. or about any other of the critical challenges that it faces acting alone - the US is going to need a lot of help from its friends and allies...help that it won't get until it starts implementing a smart foreign policy that will attract this essential support.

And, that is why I have been advocating - AD NAUSEUM, I know - that we finally get serious about a smart foreign policy and start supporting Joe Biden...for president, and then grudgingly for VP...call me an obsessive idiot - or worse! - but I can't think of anyone else who is more capable of providing that smart foreign policy.

Note: I say Biden for VP with Special Portfolio on Iraq - as opposed to Secretary of State - because I still believe that the Democrats don't form the next administration UNLESS Biden is getting some attention - FINALLY!!! - as a result of being one half of this ticket.

[ Parent ]
The main problem (0.00 / 0)
is we dont even seem to know who our allies are at the moment. We seem so obsessed with Europe, but Europe has been pretty useless for the most part. I say we need to go back to square one. All the way back.  
[ Parent ]
I am (0.00 / 0)
not sure appealing to the IIP will solve anything. They are basically the political wing of AQI.
Fred, I can understand that ... (0.00 / 0)
...these days we need a program - continuously updated! - to keep track of the friends, allies, enemies and everyone in between...in any given corner of the world.

But, what you said about Europe reminded me of something you-know-who said...

When Senator Biden was meeting, not too long ago, with the representatives of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council about his strategy for promoting political reconciliation in Iraq, they all agreed with him and unofficially endorsed what he has been advocating. Some of them - I think we can infer that we are talking about France and Britain - said they couldn't understand why they hadn't already been asked by the US government to help resolve the mess in Iraq.

I guess my point is that a lot of reason why Europe has not been acting more like allies has everything to do with how the currrent US administration has been operating vis-a-vis the relationship with its European allies.

I'm almost afraid to ask... :) ...but what exactly do you mean by "going back to square one...all the way back."?

From Fallujah To Diyala, The Target Has Shifted | 18 comments
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