National Intelligence Estimate on Iran; NOT Building Nukes

by: VetVoice

Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 15:06:36 PM EST


A declassified summary of the latest National Intelligence Estimate on Iran was released today, with the major finding that despite the last estimate, which said Iran was "determined to develop nuclear weapons despite its international obligations and international pressure," Iran is not.

Yes, that last intelligence estimate was in 2005.  The new one says they stopped their program back in 2003.  Whoops.

2003 was also before European sanctions went into effect, meaning Iran largely buckled under diplomatic pressure, not isolation, or, yes, war.

So what does this all mean?  Well, first, we know war with Iran isn't militarily viable right now.  Some of you reading this in Iraq, or who served there, know this all too well.  Heck, anyone who listens to troops knows that we just don't have the manpower to wage any sort of meaningful campaign on a third front.

Now the intelligence estimate says we don't even need to go to war.  Even if Iran went all-out, and aggressively resumed its program, we're looking at around three years until they could develop weapons grade material.

So, war isn't a good military option.  War isn't an option that would stop a weapons program, since it looks like they stopped that in 2003.  So what's left?  Why start beating the drums of war?  Could it be.... domestic politics?

Discuss.

Update:  In the comments, "dm" raises a question so obvious that we didn't even consider it.  He writes: "I think we can assume that this information has probably been kicking around the Executive Branch for at least a few months.  In that case, why all the recent talk from the President (ex: the WWIII comment) and Vice President about the necessity of stopping the Iranian nuclear weapons program?  It sounds like they have known for quite some time that there is no Iranian nuclear weapons program!"  Now that's something to consider, eh?

Update II and III:  Jon Soltz writes on this at Huffington Post.  ThinkProgress proposes the time-old question: What did the President know, and when did he know it?

VetVoice :: National Intelligence Estimate on Iran; NOT Building Nukes
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Related to this topic... (0.00 / 0)
...maybe more than we can say is this:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/73273

Is this as upsetting to you as it is to me?


This is good news... (0.00 / 0)
...now the administration doesn't have an excuse to bring in "democracy" to another country.  The problem of Iran can now certainly be solved by diplomatic means since the Gulf nations won't be crapping in their robes anymore.  They'll be able to stand by the US and exert some real diplomatic pressure. I hope we can get Iran to stop it's malign influence in Iraq and Lebanon in the near future.  

I saw this on CNN with Barb Starr as I was leaving the office.  Bummer for CNN and FOX, they wanted another war to boost their coverage!  Now they'll have to stick with SEN Craig's lovers who are coming forward.  That's what seems to pass for news these days anyhow.  


Does this imply recent dishonesty? (0.00 / 0)
  I think we can assume that this information has probably been kicking around the Executive Branch for at least a few months.  In that case, why all the recent talk from the President (ex: the WWIII comment) and Vice President about the necessity of stopping the Iranian nuclear weapons program?  It sounds like they have known for quite some time that there is no Iranian nuclear weapons program!

Ahhh, such fond memories ... (0.00 / 0)
You mean like when they had plenty of intel stating that Iraq had no WMD?  And yet we still invaded, primarily for that reason.  I remember vividly having to carry that damn MOPP gear around all the time.

"No U.S. soldier ever dies in vain because they're carrying out the missions of their commander in chief. And we honor all the service that they've provided." - Barack Obama

[ Parent ]
No surprise there (0.00 / 0)
That's their MO.  This administration has no use for outmoded ideas such as "logic" or "evidence."  I see no reason to believe that this estimate will even come close to changing the rhetoric coming from the whitehouse.

Now, happily, a nameless civilian (who's name is Robby).

[ Parent ]
It looks as if... (0.00 / 0)

.... the gov't will take any excuse to keep saying that Iran is dangerous.

Iran halted its nuclear weapons development program in the fall of 2003 under international pressure but is continuing to enrich uranium, which means it may still be able to develop a weapon between 2010 and 2015, according to a new U.S. intelligence assessment released Monday.

So they may be able to develop a nuke in 2-7 years?

And they are able to spin Iraq into it.

The intelligence officials said they do not know all the reasons why Iran halted its weapons program, or what might trigger its resumption. They said they are confident that diplomatic and political pressure played a key role, but said the U.S. invasion of Iraq, Libya's termination of its nuclear program and the implosion of the illegal nuclear smuggling network run by Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan might also have influenced Tehran.

Because everyone knows that because we invaded Iraq, Iran must feel safer.

Full story is here http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/200...

Craziness.



White House Press Briefing (4.00 / 1)
People have to check out todays White House Press Briefing by National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley. Its amazing how reckless they are with human lives (both American and Iranian). Bush was caught yet again lying to the American public and yet the regime still denies they have a desire to attack Iran. Freakin' unbelievable.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news...

Q Steve, let me follow on this point. If we now estimate with high confidence that it was shut down as of 2003, that it was halted, in October of this year, in 2007, the President is speaking about the Iranian threat, in terms of World War III. Why wouldn't you conclude that this President is hyping the threat?

MR. HADLEY: Because he was describing the threat as the intelligence community itself had been describing the threat both publicly and in their briefings to him. The President, as I think if you look at the testimony that was given by Don Kerr and Mike Hayden today, they basically said that the intelligence community finally came to the judgments that they came to on this issue Tuesday of last week. The President was briefed on Wednesday. So this is challenging information. The intelligence community had to decide what they thought about it. They were sufficiently uncertain about it that they delayed the publication of the NIE until they could come to the bottom of it, reach their conclusions, present it to the President, as they did on Wednesday, and then at that point, obviously, we wanted to get it out quickly.  


Is it a coincidence? (0.00 / 0)
The reason I posted the link to the Newsweek article above has to do with the questions that arise from the original post and the updates. Here we've got the same sort of situation we had in 2003. We have the president and vice-president making claims and giving warnings that aren't fully collaborated by the intel. Now, one of the architects of Iraq, Wolfowitz, is back on board doing what? Sitting on an advisory committee on foreign security in which he's privvy to all the classified intelligence. Something's up. Something's just not right.  

I shouldn't say... (0.00 / 0)
...something's up. I don't know that. But it's hard to believe this is just coincidental. God, I just wish these people would get out of our lives. I could've lived the rest of my life without ever hearing the name, Wolfowitz, again. Mildew always comes back.

Sorry, folks. Just blowing off steam.


Other names: (0.00 / 0)
Donald Rumsfeld (or Ronald Dumsfeld) comes immediately to mind, as does Perle, Rove, Cheney and of course Mr. GWB.  

[ Parent ]
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