Two events involving the situation in Afghanistan occurred this weekend that could change the face of the conflict there. First, Britain's commander in Afghanistan came out and declared that the war against the Taliban is now unwinnable. And when a leader like Brigadier Mark Carleton-Smith says something like this--whether you agree, or not--it's not something to be taken lightly.
"We're not going to win this war. It's about reducing it to a manageable level of insurgency that's not a strategic threat and can be managed by the Afghan army," he said.
"If the Taliban were prepared to sit on the other side of the table and talk about a political settlement, then that's precisely the sort of progress that concludes insurgencies like this," Carleton-Smith said. "That shouldn't make people uncomfortable."
Amazingly enough (wink, wink), CNN is now reporting that the Saudi government has stepped in to broker peace talks between the Afghan government, prominent warlords, and the Taliban. As part of these ongoing negotiations, the Taliban has apparently agreed to dump al Qaeda:
LONDON, England (CNN) -- Taliban leaders are holding Saudi-brokered talks with the Afghan government to end the country's bloody conflict -- and are severing their ties with al Qaeda, sources close to the historic discussions have told CNN.
The militia, which has been intensifying its attacks on the U.S.-led coalition that toppled it from power in 2001 for harboring Osama bin Laden's terrorist network, has been involved four days of talks hosted by Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah, says the source.
The talks -- the first of their kind aimed at resolving the lengthy conflict in Afghanistan -- mark a significant move by the Saudi leadership to take a direct role in Afghanistan, hosting delegates who have until recently been their enemies.
They also mark a sidestepping of key "war on terror" ally Pakistan, frequently accused of not doing enough to tackle militants sheltering on its territory, which has previously been a conduit for talks between the Saudis and Afghanistan.
According to the source, fugitive Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar -- high on the U.S. military's most-wanted list -- was not present, but his representatives were keen to stress the reclusive cleric is no longer allied to al Qaeda.
In the longer piece, there's also one other key passage:
The Afghan government believes the Taliban cannot be defeated militarily, and the Taliban believe that they can't win a war against the U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan, the Saudi source said.
If this is actually occurring as it's being reported, it's certainly a shift toward something productive. If the Taliban are willing to integrate themselves peacefully into the government, while at the same time turning on foreign al Qaeda operatives, this could place us in about as good a position as we could ever hope to achieve.
In terms of U.S. goals in the region, this type of agreement--while not coming close to ending the dire situation--could at least put us on the right track. The way I see it, our military has the following immediate goals:
1. Destroy the enemy's ability to launch attacks against Western interests outside of Afghanistan/Pakistan.
2. Kill, capture, or confirm the deaths of key Taliban and al Qaeda leaders (bin Laden, Zawahiri, Omar, etc.).
3. Prevent Afghanistan and Pakistan from offering terrorists safe haven.
Thus far, Taliban coziness with al Qaeda has prevented us from effectively achieving all but the first goal. In fact, it's pretty much the reason why the war is still going on and why we're still there. But now, that could change. And, in effect, that could have an impact on our longer-term goals like these:
1. Ensure that the Taliban does not re-take control of the Afghan government by force.
2. Ensure that extremists do not come to power in Pakistan.
3. Ensure the safety of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.
Now, I remain staunchly anti-Taliban--and we shouldn't be thrilled about negotiating with them. But in terms of strategy, this looks like it could work as the oldest war trick in the book: United, al Qaeda and the Taliban are extremely effective. Divided, not so much. Without Taliban and tribal support, foreign al Qaeda fighters will be left hanging. If the Taliban were to turn on bin Laden, Zawahiri, and the rest of the crew, those guys would find themselves in the hands of Pakistani or American authorities within weeks (if not days).
Likewise, without the al Qaeda irritant in play, the reintegration of the Taliban into the Afghan government and society becomes much smoother. As a domino effect, it probably also stops U.S. strikes in Pakistan, which, in turn, will calm the situation there, lessening the risk of that the Pakistani government will be toppled by extremists.
Of course, this could all be wishful thinking. But while the road ahead is certainly fraught with danger and a high likelihood of failure, this movement toward a break between the Taliban and al Qaeda can only be viewed as good news. |
