Survey Shows Sen. McConnell Vulnerable to Horne Challenge

by: Celinda Lake

Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 09:28:38 AM EST

Recent polling shows Mitch McConnell facing real trouble in his 2008 re-election bid for the U.S. Senate.   Even before ex-Marine Andrew Horne entered the race, McConnell was already in a precarious position, having grown increasingly unpopular among Kentucky voters.  Now, with the entrance of Horne, this is shaping up to be one of the most competitive challenger races of the cycle.

After nearly a quarter century in the Senate, Mitch McConnell has left the voters of Kentucky looking for more.  Just 45% of voters approve of the job McConnell is doing as Senator.  A 46% plurality disapproves of McConnell's job performance. McConnell's close allegiance to Bush and a series of high-profile votes have put him at odds with public opinion.  From his support for billions in taxpayer subsidies for Big Oil, trade deals that cost Americans' jobs, to his opposition to veterans' and children's health care and the minimum, McConnell has cast himself firmly in the mold of the "Washington Insider," dangerously out of touch with the constituents he purports to represent.

Well before Horne was an announced candidate, he already posed a serious threat to McConnell.  In a trial heat between the long-serving Senator and the ex-Marine, Horne pulled within 11 points of McConnell and kept him under 50%.  Horne drew 34% of the vote compared to 45% for McConnell, with 21% of voters undecided.  Traditionally, undecided voters in a race involving an incumbent will break disproportionately toward the challenger; this is particularly true when the challenger, like Horne, has room to expand his profile among the electorate.  

More fundamentally, Kentucky voters are looking for new leadership. The 2007 Governor's race, in which Kentuckians overwhelmingly voted for change, was strong evidence of this desire.  The mood for change does not stop at the state's border, as these voters want a new direction for the country, as well.  Even more than McConnell, President Bush is eminently unpopular among these voters: just 35 percent approve of the job he is doing compared to 62% who disapprove.  Taken together, the political dynamics shaping the 2008 landscape bode poorly for Mitch McConnell.