"It's the Tribes, Stupid"

My biggest question with regards to Afghanistan (0.00 / 0)

is what do we get if we win?  I can definitely see the need to see it through.  I can see various strategies and tools that would be needed.  But I mainly see a very long, difficult road ahead.  Once we have "achieved victory" in Afghanistan, what does that look like?  We will have denied AQ a major training base and recruitment center.  But they will simply move on to Waziristan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, or various parts of northern Africa.  SO, by "winning" in Afghanistan, what do we achieve?  

"No U.S. soldier ever dies in vain because they're carrying out the missions of their commander in chief. And we honor all the service that they've provided." - Barack Obama

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by: Chris LeJeune @ Wed Jun 17, 2009 at 14:29:11 PM CDT

Victory? (0.00 / 0)

Sadly for those who served there, are serving there, will serve there, there is no 'achieved victory' to be had, anything resembling that was lost when they switched to their mauin mindset 'Taking out Saddam!', and Only Saddam!!

After 9/11, and with the World backing, including most of that region and probably much of the Afghan population, promises were made for stability and the money needed to help them rebuild, not only from anything we and others might do to their country but their long Insurgency with the Soviets, of which we promised help than as well. If the focus stayed on bin Laden and al Qaeda Than, through intelligence and help we could have boxed them in and given a certain defeat, even many of the tribes would have helped, some may have joined their fight though. Any trying to escape could have been tracked down using the intelligence services of most of the world nations, going after the Criminal Element they were. money pouring in as well as NGO's etc. working with the Afghans could have started the rebuilding but more important the stabilization and leading to not a puppet government but a government of the people.

It's way too late for any of that, way too late, to many innocents are getting killed and now not only Afghans!!!  

'Hearts and Minds, "The ultimate victory will depend on the hearts and minds of the people who actually live there." -- President Lyndon Johnson

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by: jimstaro @ Wed Jun 17, 2009 at 17:01:41 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Watched (0.00 / 0)

This first episode and will be watching and passing them all on shortly.

He's spot on, some of this was brought out during the Soviet occupation, but arrogant countries don't learn much about others nor really care to. Especially Powerful Nations, that Power held at bay by groups of what we consider peasants and ignorant people, they consider themselves Warriors and Defenders of their Homeland!

The same was pushed as to us in 'Nam only it wasn't tribes but we were fighting that evil bogeyideology Communism. The Vietnamesse, VC, just wanted our asses the hell out of their country after they forced the French out, and the French told us Not To Try. But it boils down to Strong Nationalism, as we would have, except the 'kombat keyboarding chickenhawks', if invaded or for as wacky as this worlds getting states went up against states!!

The powerful, with all the toys of destruction, can not defeat the strength of the individuals who were born in or are from a region of this planet, it's their's not ours to rule over!  

'Hearts and Minds, "The ultimate victory will depend on the hearts and minds of the people who actually live there." -- President Lyndon Johnson

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by: jimstaro @ Wed Jun 17, 2009 at 17:11:51 PM CDT

Rory Stewart (0.00 / 0)

You may have heard of Rory Stewart's two books: "The Places In Between" about his trek across Afghanistan in 2002, and "The Prince of the Marshes" about the 11 months he spent as a British diplomat in the British sector of the country (the marshes in the delta area). A theme that binds the two books is the degree to which tribalism provides the basic cultural fabric and organizing principals of both countries.

These are worth a read for anyone who wants a better understanding of how the two societies work and why the the approach of the last 8 years was doomed to failure.  

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by: beentheredonethat @ Thu Jun 18, 2009 at 08:01:47 AM CDT

Very good and (0.00 / 0)

interesting analysis. Granted it left me wondering..... If the Saudi brand of Islam(Wahhabism) is hostile and genocidal towards both tribal groups and every other brand of Islam, why are we not taking a much more active role in giving guns and money to groups like the Shia and the Sufis to assist them in smashing the Wahhabi hordes and bringing death to the barbarous Wahhabi invaders?

Now such a plan might not be perfect. But at the same end, it is much more cemented in reality than the myth of a monolithic Muslim world. And given whom we are consistently told is the leader of this "Monolithic Muslim World," I find the divide and conquer plan much, much more desirable as well.  

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by: FredUSMC @ Fri Jun 19, 2009 at 13:46:12 PM CDT