Afghanistan Strategy Review Leaked

by: Richard Allen Smith

Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 13:15:05 PM EDT


Washington Post reporter Bob Woodward has obtained the 66-page McChrystal strategy review in Afghanistan, which contains a sobering assessment of the way ahead and the resources required:

The top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan warns in an urgent, confidential assessment of the war that he needs more forces within the next year and bluntly states that without them, the eight-year conflict "will likely result in failure," according to a copy of the 66-page document obtained by The Washington Post.

Admittedly, I haven't had time to review the document. But I do see a problem with this assessment. Let's assume that it is correct, and that we cannot achieve success when the current force level. Fine. But what is the plan for the additional forces? How likely is the hypothesis that with more resources, we can achieve success?  If this can be articulated, I'm all for it. However, we shouldn't make the mistake of throwing more troops at the problem just because we aren't succeeding with the current troop level. We need to understand how additional troops will effect the current situation.

To his credit, McChrystal seems to understand that the same mistake can't be made as with the Iraq surge; that is, turning back the insurgency is only have the battle:

[I]t must be made clear: new resources are not the crux. To succeed, ISAF [the NATO command in Afghanistan] requires a new approach - with a significant magnitude of change - in addition to a proper level of resourcing. ISAF must restore confidence in the near-term through renewed commitment, intellectual energy and visible progress.
Richard Allen Smith :: Afghanistan Strategy Review Leaked
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COMMANDER ON THE GROUND SHOULD BE GIVEN SOME CREDIT (4.00 / 1)
I am concerned about the general tone of the discussion in other forums where the administration wants to listen to other "military experts".  If these other experts are so good where are they commanding?  McCrystal is responsible for the mission and the lives of his troops, the overt second guessing reminds me of Rumsfeld.  

Semper Fi

The tone here has always seemed to be pretty good (0.00 / 0)
and certainly nothing to be concerned about.

What is concerning, though, is where this Afghanistan strategy is going, or not going, as the case may be.

Are you convinced that what is needed here is a COIN strategy, complete with a massive and very, very, very long term nation-buliding effort? Shouldn't the effort we are involved in here be more of  a counterterrorism mission - and, if so, wouldn't you say that success in this regard may already be largely achieved?

My concern is that there will never be an effective central government in Kabul that has the capcity to exert its authority across the whole of Afghanistan. That has never been the case in this country where the traditinal power structures reside at the local and regional levels.

It seems to be quite clear - just take a look at the effectiveness of the ANP and ANA - that the US and NATO will not change the customs and traditions or the political dynamics that are entrenched in the fabric of Afghanistan. In any event, I don't see how this will be achieved by increasing the military footprint in this completely traumatized country.

I'm worried that if the final strategy has at its center a strong central government in Kabul, we might as well pack up and go home now.


[ Parent ]
I think I agree with you. (0.00 / 0)
I just don't think that we second guess the new commander now.  We have been slow playing this for 8 years and need to get serious.  If we had been doing more than stall for the last 8 years it would be a different story.  

This is not just about Afghanistan its about Pakistan.    

Semper Fi


[ Parent ]
I couldn't agree more. (0.00 / 0)
In fact, Pakistan is where the focus needs to be.

As for "second guessing' the new commander...I would just say that the strategy that Obama-Biden finally decide upon will determine whether or not more troops are required.

I understand where General McChrystal is coming from and I would agree that IF it is a counterinsurgency mission that we want here (aka major nation-building effort) then  more troops are needed. But, I have to ask...is US/NATO physically able to deploy enough troops for an effort like that and is a COIN strategy in our national security interest?

It is borderline criminal that so much time was wasted over the last eight years and I wonder if what has happened as a result of that has made the mission- whatever it is - in Afghanistan impossible to execute. I hope not but, that may be the case.


[ Parent ]
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