July 2011: What we Still Don't Know

by: Richard Allen Smith

Wed Dec 02, 2009 at 12:03:46 PM EST

Taken together, these additional American and international troops will allow us to accelerate handing over responsibility to Afghan forces, and allow us to begin the transfer of our forces out of Afghanistan in July of 2011. Just as we have done in Iraq, we will execute this transition responsibly, taking into account conditions on the ground.

However, conflicting statements and the realities of the situation on the ground leave questions about such a goal.  First, the President notes that such a date will rely on the conditions on the ground.  What does that mean exactly?  Is it a possibility that the July 2011 date could be pushed back if commanders, including the President himself, deem it unrealistic?

CNAS President, influential wonk and counterinsurgency guru John Nagl (who literally wrote the books on COIN co-authoring the field manual, as well as his own book on the subject) believes that the deadline is something to hope for, but not something we should take to the bank.

Similarly, Nicholas Beaudrot notes that DoD officials have told him that:

"The ultimate goal is to have Afghanistan be  sovereign country that can stay in charge of its own security." The summer of 2011 isn't a necessarily time where we can expect to be at this ultimate goal. In fact, we might not be particularly close to it. But at the least, hopefully [hopefully? yeah, you're telling me], we'll be at a point where. "based on the conditions today, based upon the inputs that we're putting in over the coming months, we have a very good expectation ... that the Afghans will be ready to start assuming this lead responsibility, and allow our troops to start coming home as the President said".

Likewise, OpenLeft's Chris Bowers notes that the definition of "transition" has remained undefined:

I just had a chance to talk with three senior Obama administration officials.  In regards to President Obama's statement that "after 18 months, our troops will begin to come home," I asked for clarification on how many troops would be coming home in eighteen months, and at what rate would they be coming home.

The answers made it clear that there is no actual timeline for withdrawing troops from Afghanistan:

   * There is no defined rate for, or number of troops involved in, the 2011 withdrawal.

   * They will be "taking conditions on the ground into account" in determining the withdrawal.

   * The withdrawal is "a goal."

Additionally, we have two conflicting statements from the Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who was reported today by Reuters to indicate that the July 2011 date is not dependent on ground conditions, while at the same time noting to the Senate Armed Services Committee that:

"We're not just going to throw these guys in the swimming pool and walk away," Gates told the committee. "It will be based on conditions on the ground but at the same time... we have to build a fire under them frankly to get them to do the kind of recruitment and retention that allows us to make this transition."

Taking all this information together, this is what I've come up with:  In mid-2011, U.S. forces will do something in Afghanistan with regards to transitioning out of the conflict.  In a best case scenario, we will begin turning over leadership and responsibility to the Afghan Security Forces and government and begin withdrawing troops.  Otherwise, my speculation is that it will be some sort of token act like giving greater responsibilities to the ANSF in the North and West which have been more stable over the years then the East and South, or increasing the visibility of Afghan leadership in American operations.  Or, it could be something as minuscule as conducting another strategy review to determine if the conditions on the ground are conducive to any transition at all. Basically, (and again, this is just my speculation) if things don't go well we'll still see something done for the sake of doing something, but that something may not have much of an impact.