Support for DADT Drops Significantly in New Military Times Poll

by: Richard Allen Smith

Tue Feb 09, 2010 at 09:56:50 AM EST

An exclusive survey of some 3,000 active-duty troops shows such opposition has fallen sharply from nearly two-thirds (65 percent) in 2004 to about half (51 percent) today. The survey results appear Monday in Army Times, Air Force Times, Navy Times and Marine Corps Times.

Now, we can't forget an important caveat:  as we've pointed out here previously, and by Military Times own admission, the results of this poll are unscientific and do not reflect the overall demographic of the United States Armed Forces. The sample is based on 8,001  self-selected subscribers and 213 self-selected newsstand readers which "are on average, older, more experienced, and more senior in rank than the overall military population".  Females, minorities and junior enlisted Soldiers, (read: the demographic most would estimate to be more inclined to support a repeal of DADT) are underrepresented in the sample.

What we can glean for these results, however, is a trend.  As you can see from the graphic above, opposition to open homosexual service is trending sharply downward, with support trending sharply upward. I'm no sociologist, but I would make the argument that this is a result of millennial generation servicemembers, who are more likely to display open attitudes to sexual orientation diversity, moving into the mid-career and higher ranks.  I would also argue that a) as more of said generation move into the demographic towards which this poll is heavily weighted, the trend line will continue even more sharply; and b) with the under-representation of junior enlisted servicemembers, women and minorities, it's a virtual certainty that opposition to openly gay servicemembers within the ranks is far less than the 51% indicated by this unscientific poll.

Of course, so long as Military Times continues to use its unreliable methodology, we won't be able to know for sure. Perhaps in the study proposed by SECDEF Gates, an actual scientific poll of servicemembers with a random sample that reflects the actual demographic make-up of the military will be conducted.  I'd put dollars to donuts that if such a poll were conducted, support for DADT comes in below 40%.