Unraveling Ceasefire Changes the Game

by: Brandon Friedman

Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 13:24:24 PM EDT

And now the chickens are coming home to roost.  Muqtada al Sadr's ceasefire is quickly unraveling throughout the country, and violence is spiraling.  Here is just a sampling:

Fighting Breaks Out in Sadr City; Mahdi Army Takes Over Checkpoints

Fighting broke out Tuesday on the streets of Sadr City, an area controlled by Shiite firebrand cleric Muqtada al Sadr, and the Mahdi Army militia announced it had taken over Iraqi army checkpoints in an escalation of tension with Iraqi government security forces.

The sound of gunfire could be heard in Sadr City throughout the morning and Mahdi Army members walked down the streets carrying rifles, rocket-propelled grenade launchers and other weapons in what appeared to be a show of force, according to two witnesses.

Is 'success' of U.S. surge in Iraq about to unravel?

A cease-fire critical to the improved security situation in Iraq appeared to unravel Monday when a militia loyal to radical Shiite Muslim cleric Muqtada al Sadr began shutting down neighborhoods in west Baghdad and issuing demands of the central government.

Iraqi troops, militias clash in Basra

Iraqi forces clashed with Shiite militiamen Tuesday in the southern oil port of Basra and rockets rained down on the U.S.-protected Green Zone in Baghdad as followers of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr expanded a nationwide backlash against government crackdowns.

What the Bush administration has failed to grasp is the absolute importance of the Mahdi Army ceasefire.  I first wrote that the ceasefire was key to reining in the violence last November:

No one seems to notice that, as with everything else in Iraq, the Iraqis are going to do what they want, when they want.  When al-Sadr lays down his arms, there will be relative peace.  When he takes them up, Americans will die in dozens.

Regardless, the fortunes of Iraq will turn on Iraqi decisions made in Baghdad and Najaf, not in Washington, D.C. and the halls of Congress.  As this situation shows, peace in Iraq lies in the hands of Iraqis.  It cannot-and will not-be forced by Americans at the point of a gun.

In fact, the ceasefire--a political move--is crucial to ending the slaughter.  As Ilan Goldenberg says today at Democracy Arsenal:

The Bush Administration will tell you it's all about the troop levels.  I've tended to believe it's more of a mix and was most inclined towards the Anbar Awakening and the sectarian cleansing as the important factors.  But when you look at the data it really seems to indicate that the Sadr ceasefire may have been the key.

(snip)

The Sadr ceasefire occured on August 28 and suddenly boom a big drop in violence.  That could be a coincidence and it could be that all four factors came together.  But the data seems to point to the fact that the Sadr Ceasefire more than anything else is what caused the drop in violence in the early fall.

If the Sadr ceasefire indeed collapses, it will likely cause a domino effect throughout the country.  As Shia groups vie for power in Baghdad, Sunni groups will not be able to sit by idly and watch the city slip away from them.  The old saying in the country is, "Whoever controls Baghdad, controls Iraq."  Likewise, whoever controls the center, controls the oil.  Therefore, if the ceasefire gives way now, the violence in Iraq will likely worsen to a point not yet seen during the war in Iraq.  

It seems--again--that an immediate, international diplomatic effort is necessary to stop the violence in Iraq.  U.S. forces will never be able to provide a long-term reason for Shia groups to halt their infighting.  Nor will we be militarily able to prevent an apocalyptic battle for Baghdad, should the militias decide to battle for it.  The answer here lies in a concerted international effort--using diplomacy--to find a solution which all interested parties in Iraq can at least tolerate.