Did al-Sadr just declare victory? (w/ update)

by: dm

Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 12:16:27 PM EDT


(From the diaries - promoted by Brandon Friedman)

CNN reports that al Sadr is attempting to broker a deal by which JAM members will cease fighting government forces and, in return, the government will grant amnesty to JAM members and release JAM prisoners.

I suspect that the US media will report this as a sign that the government forces have won.  However, I wonder if al Sadr is instead trying to quit while he's ahead.  Think about what his movement has demonstrated in the last few days:

  • First, it appears that JAM has so thoroughly infiltrated government forces that any move against al Sadr is virtually impossible.  In fact, the government forces appear sufficiently weak that an effective move against any faction is probably impossible.

  • Second, JAM may have demonstrated sufficient political and military strength to resist government coercion.

  • Third, and perhaps most importantly, the events of the last few days probably cause most Iraqis to view the Maliki government as profoundly anti-democratic and inextricably linked to the US occupation.  This may harm the central government's internal credibility.

  • Fourth, by offering peace and continuing to oppose the presence of US forces, al Sadr appears to support goals that are probably widely shared by many Iraqis.  This may improve al Sadr's popularity and internal credibility.

    • In sum, I suspect that this offer by al Sadr is essentially a declaration of victory.  It's notable that although al Sadr has ordered peace, he has also ordered his forces to retain their weapons.  All of this suggests that the consolidation of military and political power by the various factions in Iraq is ongoing and unlikely to conclude in the near future.

    Update: As predicted, some elements of the media are reporting this event as a victory for the Maliki government.  However, given that the terms of the ceasefire may be even more humiliating for Maliki that earlier reported, I stand by my initial observations.
    dm :: Did al-Sadr just declare victory? (w/ update)
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    Did al-Sadr just declare victory? (w/ update) | 14 comments
    Al-Sadr calls for support of Arab states - 29 Mar 08 (0.00 / 0)
    Includes clips of recent al sadr interview by al jezzera

    h/t crooks and liars

    anyone able to find the full interview?

    From Mosaic (0.00 / 0)

    Link TV

    'Hearts and Minds, "The ultimate victory will depend on the hearts and minds of the people who actually live there." -- President Lyndon Johnson

    This sounds like Sadr has the upper hand (0.00 / 0)
    Essentially he is saying that JAM will cease fighting IF certain demands are met.  That is not the tone of a beaten leader, who would be willing to lay down arms if he is just allowed to live.  This also means that if those demands are not met that the fighting will continue, and that Sadr believes they have that capability.  If JAM prisoners are released, there is no way that the media could spin that to favor the Maliki government.  I still question why it is that we are not propping up Sadr.  Yes, he is very anti-American, but so is every group there that we do support.  

    "No U.S. soldier ever dies in vain because they're carrying out the missions of their commander in chief. And we honor all the service that they've provided." - Barack Obama
    Dm... (0.00 / 0)
    ...it's pretty complicated, but I disagree that he "declared" victory.  I'll try to provide my own two-bit analysis later on this evening.  
    I was hoping to see you here! (0.00 / 0)
    Looking forward to your analysis, in particular, who is Mahdi fighting against, and who is the "Iraqi Army" that is fighting against them?

    "No U.S. soldier ever dies in vain because they're carrying out the missions of their commander in chief. And we honor all the service that they've provided." - Barack Obama
    [ Parent ]
    Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (0.00 / 0)
    As far as I can tell from the sparse information in the news, following Maliki's stalled offensive in Basra U.S. soldiers are now fighting directly on behalf of the Iranian-sponsored Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim.
    [ Parent ]
    I had heard the same thing (0.00 / 0)
    Just wanted more confirmation.  So, basically, Badr Corps and Mahdi got into it once again, and we sided with SCIRI?  No wonder no one can ever define success.

    "No U.S. soldier ever dies in vain because they're carrying out the missions of their commander in chief. And we honor all the service that they've provided." - Barack Obama
    [ Parent ]
    Kinda sorta.... (0.00 / 0)
    ...hard to tell.  I think PM Maliki was a bit optimistic about the operation, and our president was off in outer space with his "postive moment" line or whatever the hell he said.  The only way to get rid of militias is to eliminate the need for them by having adequate security and services...too bad that's going to take forever.
    [ Parent ]
    I have been saying for some time (4.00 / 1)
    That I would support the continued presence of Spec-Ops forces in Iraq, for the purpose of training their security forces.  I agree that having an adequate police/military, and a decent infrastructure is the long term goal in Iraq.  I just don't see why we need 140,000+ troops and even more contractors there for the next several years to accomplish that.

    "No U.S. soldier ever dies in vain because they're carrying out the missions of their commander in chief. And we honor all the service that they've provided." - Barack Obama
    [ Parent ]
    I look forward to reading your analysis (0.00 / 0)
    On the other hand, I'm now reading news reports that suggest that the fighting hasn't really stopped anyway, so perhaps our discussion of the meaning of the ceasefire is moot...
    [ Parent ]
    Smintheus at Daily Kos (0.00 / 0)
    says Maliki blinked.  It backs up what you're saying, dm.
    [ Parent ]
    The Mahdi Army... (0.00 / 0)
    ..is not as powerful as some people have portrayed.  I disagree with Smintheus's assessment.  
    [ Parent ]
    Yeah... (0.00 / 0)
    ...I'm not stashing my body armor.  We'll see what happens...
    [ Parent ]
    Interesting... (0.00 / 0)
    ...did you see that Iran helped broker it?!?  This place never stops being interesting, but, man, I can't wait to get the f*ck out of here.
    [ Parent ]
    Did al-Sadr just declare victory? (w/ update) | 14 comments
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