Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 21:45:11 PM EDT
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| The recent outbreak of violence in Basra, Kut, Diwaniyah, Karbala, and Baghdad is certainly troubling and very complex. Many people have stated that it is a Shi'ite power struggle, possibly for the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC) and Dawa party to secure votes in the upcoming provincial elections by knocking out the Sadr movement. This is partially correct, but there are some other factors going on here. Perhaps it's best to put the Sadrists and their militia, the Jaish Al-Mahdi (JAM) into some quick historical context.
2006 - The holy Al-Askari shrine in Samarra was bombed by Al-Qaeda unleashing escalating sectarian violence throughout Iraq. Car bombs in Baghdad targeting Shi'ite civilians were frequent, and the Coalition and Iraqi security forces are unable to provide adequate security as the city descends into chaos. The Mahdi Army is seen as a protector by the majority Shi'ite population who can fend off Al-Qaeda terrorists (who happen to be Sunni). Unfortunately, this involves forced displacement, torture of Sunni citizens, racketeering of meager services that are handed out by the Iraqi government, and other mob-style tactics.
Early 2007 - Surge is launched and Operation Fardh al-Qanoon is put into place in Baghdad. This involves stepped up security with a curfew, more checkpoints, massive travel restrictions, and the infamous T-walls along sectarian faultlines. This helps quell the raging ethnosectarian violence, and the heavy-handed tactics of the Mahdi army become less popular as they are seen as gangland thugs as opposed to protectors.
Aug 2007 - The Mahdi Army fights with Iraqi Security Forces in the holy city of Karbala in a dispute over who gets certain mosque fees during the pilgrimage that was taking place. Dozens are killed during this holy event, and the Mahdi Army is completely disgraced. Sadr orders a ceasefire over his militia to "rehabilitate" the movement.
Oct. 2007 - Sadr and his rival from SIIC, Abdul Aziz Hakim, sign a truce to end Shi'ite on Shi'ite bloodshed in southern Iraq. This is seen as a positive development at the time, but doesn't really come to fruition. In Diwaniyah and Sadr City, US and Iraqi forces target "rogue" elements of the Mahdi Army. The Sadrists claim that the US and Iraqi Security Forces (which are dominated by Badr Corps, the militia of SIIC) are using the ceasefire to target their members. The Sadrists fail to acknowledge that these "rogue" groups are receiving weapons from Iran and continuing their criminal activities despite the ceasefire.
Mar 2008 - Sadr issues a statement saying that the Mahdi Army has the right to "self-defense". This is used by militiamen in Kut to justify a small-scale offensive which is quickly squashed by the Iraqi security forces. Maliki, out of the blue, launches a massive operation in Basrah on Mar 25, and the rest is history still developing.
Sadr and the Mahdi Army are dissimilar from Al-Qaeda in that they actually do have some popular support amongst working class and poverty-stricken Shi'ites. SIIC and Dawa, which is Prime Minister Maliki's party, generally gets support from middle/upper-class Shi'ites. Unfortunately, many of those people have fled the country as years of war have targeted the professional class in Iraq. I once heard Basrah described as similar to Chicago in the 1920s. Instead of gangs with tommy guns, it's dudes with Ak-47s and RPGs and replace the bathtub gin with oil and you've got Iraq's second largest city. Iran has tremendous influence over many of these militias and provides them with weapons and training. However, this is most likely a method to diminish credibility of the "evil satanic" coalition forces, and an unstable Basrah is not in Iran's best interest. As a matter of fact, an unstable Iraq is not in Iran's best interest as one of the most brutal wars in the latter part of the 20th century was fought between Iraq and Iran and no one wants to see that again. That's probably why the Iranian foreign minister recently called for an end to the crisis in Basrah. Despite what many wags in the media have been saying, the Mahdi Army has been getting crippled militarily throughout Iraq, and this is likely why Sadr called for a full scale uprising on Al-Jazeera one day, then a ceasefire the next day. Whether or not the Mahdi Army will actually stop its criminal activities this time around is in question. It would be very difficult to militarily eradicate militias in Iraq, because their existence fills a vacuum. I won't discuss Bush's ridiculous comments about the whole situation and the fact that this means we are going to have to stay here awhile because it's too depressing (coalition assets were required for the operations in Basrah and Baghdad). I also can't discuss incidents in the Green Zone for OPSEC reasons. I just wanted to dispel this myth running through the blogosphere and media that somehow US and Iraqi forces were tactically "losing" to a bunch of thugs. The only way to approach this problem is to build legitimate security forces and for the Iraqi government to adequately provide services which will negate the need for these Hezbollah-style groups to control Iraq. Sadly, that will take years of American involvement with our current strategy. That's been the paradox of this whole war, all the firepower in the world, and we can't get these people to stop killing each other. |
| LT Nixon :: Shi'ite Happens |
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